Myrtle Beach, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

906
FXUS62 KILM 242350
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
750 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Ridging will build across the area and create an extended heat
wave and limited thunderstorm activity lasting from Friday well
into next week with increasing extreme heat risk.

&&

.UPDATE...
Rather widespread convection this afternoon laid down impressive
coverage of 0.5 to 1.5 inch rainfall totals extending from the
Cape Fear region southwestward across the Pee Dee region. We
received a phone call around 530 pm from a spotter near
Socastee, SC who recorded 1.99 inches which matched radar rather
closely. This activity is supported by diurnal instability plus
broad low level convergence from the remnant of the old front
plus today`s seabreeze circulation. Instability and convergence
should both wane over the next 2 hours with activity expected to
completely dissipate between 9-10 pm.

With so many areas receiving soaking rainfall, light winds and
clearing skies argue for at least considering the potential for
ground fog development overnight. I`ve added a stripe of "patchy
fog" to the forecast between 4-8 am Friday where average precip
totals were greater than about a quarter inch, omitting the
beaches and also the Lumberton-Bennettsville-Darlington area
where no rain fell.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
evening, dissipating around sunset, as warm front/trough currently
along the coast pushes inland, though it`s hard to distinguish
between the front and sea breeze. What remains of the front/trough
will dissipate as it moves inland and north this evening into
tonight. Near seasonable low temps tonight in the low to mid 70s. A
deep mid-upper ridge begins building over the Southeast tomorrow,
kicking off a prolonged period of hot and humid weather. Highs
tomorrow around 95-75F (away from immediate coastline) will combine
with dewpoints in the 70s to produce heat indices around 105F across
the area and a Heat Advisory is now in effect for daytime Friday.
There is a chance for isolated showers Friday with PWATs near 2" and
active sea breeze and Piedmont trough at the surface, but with
building ridge and associated subsidence have opted to keep forecast
dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Hot and humid weather will continue with another Heat Advisory
or perhaps a Heat Warning for Saturday as temps soar to near 100
inland of the immediate coast. Heat indices will be between 105
and 110 most places. Night time temps will give little to no
relief from the heat with overnight lows well into the 70s to
near 80.

Sfc high establishes itself off the Southeast coast with a S-SW
return flow of hot and humid air into the eastern Carolinas. The
mid to upper ridge will be almost directly overhead. May see
trailing end of front riding by to the north extend far enough
south into the Carolinas to help veer the low level winds to
the west and could produce a few showers, but mainly expect
convection to remain north of area. The downslope westerly
component to the low level winds should add to the heat.
Overall, expect extreme heat through the period and limited, if
any convective activity, mainly late Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Extreme heat continues with Heat Advisories and possible Heat
Warnings through much of next week. As center of mid to upper
ridge slips slowly westward, the ridge continues to remain
expansive and will extend over the Carolinas with H5 heights
remaining above 595 dam through at least Wed. Looking at the 850
temps, we may see values up around 23C into next Thursday. At
the sfc, a weak trough extends down into the Carolinas Sun and
gets stretched out near our local area as northern extent moves
off to the east into the Atlantic Mon and Tues. With trough
lingering and with the help of sea/land breeze, should see
lighter winds with some variability and backing of winds each
aftn and a veering of winds overnight. Expect any convection to
be limited with iso to widely sct PoPs most days as ridge aloft
remains dominant.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rather widespread convective showers and even a few
thunderstorms still dot the area this evening but should rapidly
dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. With light winds in
place and wet ground thoughts turn to possible ground fog
development late tonight. While models aren`t showing much
potential, we believe the risk of MVFR visibility is large
enough to warrant an early morning TEMPO group for 5SM
visibility in BR at KILM and KFLO. Lesser potential exists at
KCRE and KLBT, but still mainly in the 08z-12z timeframe. Fewer
convective showers should develop Friday afternoon as the
airmass becomes drier and a bit warmer aloft and therefore less
prone to develop deep convective clouds.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to dominate the
extended period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Southwest winds around 10-15 kts continue to
prevail across the local coastal waters as a warm front/trough moves
inland this evening and surface high pressure lingers off to the
southeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet, combination of 1-2 ft ENE swell and 2
ft S swell.

Friday night through Monday...High pressure off the Southeast
coast will maintain S-SW return flow through the weekend into
next week. Seas will basically be 3 ft or less Thurs through
the weekend with winds around 10 to 15 kts to start and coming
down to 10 kts or less over the weekend. May see winds become
more variable Sun night through Tue as a weak trough drops down
into or near the area waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of large astronomical tides from the new moon,
occurring this afternoon, and some seasonally rare warm season
onshore flow will bring minor coastal flooding threat for 2 more
evenings along the Lower Cape Fear River due to upstream
component to the wind. At the beaches the winds will turn from
the NE to S-SW, thus the beaches will retain their large astro
components for healthy tides but lose the onshore component-
induced surge to near or slightly above advisory realm.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for NCZ107.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...RGZ/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...